What's Up with Grocery Inflation?

High prices for food can be a real problem for families on a tight budget. We all have to eat, so high food prices can really impact the budget. Inflation is slowing, though, so we should be cheered by the good news.

In June I posted the good news that inflation had slowed down in May, and someone responded by posting this meme:



I was unable to find this photo or the information anywhere on the Twitter/X account of The Kobeissi Letter, so it could be fake or taken down. However, the apparent originator of this list publishes a newsletter on financial matters and has a degree in business, so he should know better (but perhaps not, because he’s younger than my oldest grandchild and wasn't around in the '80s, when inflation was double-digit for several years straight coupled with a recession).

The post implies that the cost of the foods listed has gone up because of inflation caused by President Biden (implied by an image of the President looking happy). This is typical propaganda, because the person who made the post was sending a clear message, one some people were happy to jump on, because we humans tend to want simple answers and someone to blame.

Real life isn’t always that simple, and business never is. The best I can do to simplify the cause of high prices is to say it primarily rests on supply and demand. It’s like a teeter-totter. If the supply goes up vis-à-vis the demand, the price will go down. If more people want to buy something, and less of it is available, the price will go up.


From here, it gets complicated. If you want to skip to the end, where I offer some suggestions, and not look at my documentation, I’ll boil it down here: Prices over recent years have been impacted by climate change, disease (plants, animals, humans), geopolitical forces (such as wars) and lifestyle changes (more people choosing healthier foods and eating at home), not just inflation. A government can do some things to offset inflation, but it’s a tricky balance. I researched and found articles with information explaining what goes into the pricing of each item. I’ll address these items one at a time.

Cocoa: Crop disease, climate and market speculation. (This was predicted, and I stocked up. If you’re local and want to borrow a cup of cocoa powder, just let me know. I got it cheap a few months ago.)



Orange juice: Reduced crop size, and disease, caused by climate changes in Florida.


Olive Oil: A drop in crop production caused by worldwide shifting weather patterns as a result of climate changes.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/11/global-sugar-prices-el-nino/

Fruit snacks: Shift in eating habits post-pandemic, more natural ingredients being used and special diets, such as low-calorie and gluten-free. More demand = higher price.



Cooking oil: Global weather events affecting soybean and palm oil production. (Starting to see a pattern?)


Chocolate bars: (See cocoa, above. You can't make chocolate without...chocolate.)

Apple sauce: Seasonal availability, labor shortages and packaging. Apples are harvested in the fall. They store well, but off-season apples come from the Southern Hemisphere, so we pay for extra shipping as well as the processing.



Beef: Drought in cattle-raising areas (climate change again), health of animals and cost to maintain.
https://www.ellsworthamerican.com/news/beef-prices-up-due-to-drought-and-rising-costs-to-maintain-cattle/article_67bdeb2a-2e46-11ef-9627-3344ca645a7d.html

Mayonaise: (See oil, eggs)

Loaf of bread: Average price of white bread in the US as of June 20, 2024, was $1.97. Problem? (This one was for sale at Walmart near me for $1.98.)



Eggs: Avian flu outbreak that killed 54.5 million birds, labor shortages, cost of feed due to Ukraine war.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/03/egg-prices-increased-70percent-over-the-last-yearheres-why-.html

Milk: At Fred Meyer close to me, nonfat milk is currently $1.99 for 1/2 gal. Come on and stock up! However, anything that affects meat can impact milk production, because most milk comes from cows.
https://www.in2013dollars.com/Milk/price-inflation

Cereal: Apparently leveled off, but Kellogs has been price-gouging. Shame on them!



Butter: We're relying more on imported butter with our own production down due to...climate issues. (See beef, above.) https://www.indexbox.io/store/united-states-of-america-butter-market-report-analysis-and-forecast-to-2025/


Photo by Girl Wish Red Hat on Unsplash, cropped

That takes care of the list from the meme. Have you noticed a theme? Climate change. There are other factors, such as supply chains, corporate gouging and consumer tastes that enter into pricing, but droughts, floods, shifts in normal seasons and other factors that accompany climate change are having a major impact worldwide. We need to face up to it and address it, not just as Americans, but as inhabitants of Earth. There's only so much we can do to limit inflation without addressing our changing climate.

While we're working that out, if you can afford it, give to your local soup kitchen or food pantry to help others who are not so well off. There are plenty of other things we buy to feed our families, and costs are still high, especially for low-wage earners or people who are unemployed. 

On the other hand, if you're having trouble feeding your family, I've been where you are and I feel your pain. I had periods in my life during which I had very little money for food after paying rent, car payment, utilities, gas and medical bills. I found you can survive on some fairly inexpensive foods that have stayed inexpensive (when adjusted for inflation, of course) over the years. Here's a list of inexpensive and nourishing foods:

Cabbage (You don't have to cook it all at once. Don't cut it unless you want to cook it all at once but simply peel the leaves off as you need them.)

Carrots (Peel them unless they are organically grown. The pesticides concentrate in the skin. High in Vitamin A.)

Potatoes (You can live on potatoes and water alone without sacrificing health. Not fun, but cheap. They have a lot of protein and Vitamin C, which you expect to get from fruits, which are more expensive.)

Dried beans (If you cook your own beans, you can save a lot, and they're high in protein, so you can give up meat until your finances are better. Meat is one of the most expensive foods there is.)

Eggs (Another good source of protein and relatively cheap during normal times. They will be inexpensive again.)

Powdered milk (Cheaper than milk in the carton and can be added to other foods to increase the protein, or you can mix your own to drink or put on cereal or in coffee.)

Rice (As with potatoes, you can live on brown rice pretty well, but it's more expensive than white rice. White rice can be used to extend other foods, but a diet of white rice only leads to beriberi unless supplemented with Vitamin B1.)

Rolled oats (Old-fashioned oats are usually cheaper than the instant kind. They can be added to soups and stews. You can soak them in milk and/or yoghurt overnight in the fridge if you want to save the expense of heating them on the stove.)

Finally, fresh foods are cheaper to purchase than processed and more nutritious. Learn to eat foods without sugar added. Eventually, you will taste the natural sugars in the food you eat. The same is true of salt, although you do need sodium in your diet. The foods on this list are very low in sodium, and salt is relatively cheap, so buy some and use it in your food in moderation. Get iodized salt if you can. Skip the spices, herbs and condiments, at least until you have some extra money. Onions and garlic add a lot of flavor without a lot of expense, but leaving them out saves a bit of money. Make a list and stick to it when you shop; avoid impulse buying.

I'll end with this plea: When we see a post or meme that provides a simple answer to our complicated life problems, our inclination is to want to share it with others. I'm trying to teach myself to stop and think, perhaps even do some research, as I've done here. It's rare that life's serious problems have easy answers or someone to blame. I encourage everyone to do the same, or if you don't have the time, just don't share the post or meme. We're all in this together. Oh, and inflation was down again in June.

Peggy Stuart is a retired journalist, and the author of books for children and numerous articles that appeared in Personnel Journal magazine. She is not an economist.

Comments

Post a Comment